China will overtake the United States as the world’s leading nuclear energy producer by 2035. That is the forecast of Damien Ma, analyst at Gavekal Technologies, laid out in a recent report that has sparked considerable debate across the industry. The picture that emerges is of a country that has elevated nuclear power to a strategic national priority, backed by numbers that leave little room for doubt: in recent years, Beijing has single-handedly added 34 gigawatts of installed nuclear capacity — a figure no other country comes remotely close to matching.
The United States remains today’s largest producer in absolute terms, with the world’s biggest operational fleet. But the gap is closing fast. China currently accounts for nearly half of all nuclear reactors under construction worldwide, and according to Gavekal Technologies’ estimates, it will match American capacity within five years. This is not just about scale: Beijing has also built a commanding lead across a broad range of advanced nuclear technologies, from high-temperature gas-cooled reactors to fourth-generation plants.
A decisive factor is construction speed. China can complete a new nuclear plant in roughly six years, compared to well over a decade for the most recent American reactors — the Vogtle units in Georgia, which became a symbol of the structural delays plaguing the Western nuclear sector. This gap is no accident: it is the product of years of investment in industrial supply chains, workforce training, and process standardization. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan has reaffirmed nuclear power as a cornerstone of national energy policy, framing it alongside energy security, technological innovation, and global geopolitical positioning.
Adding further momentum to China’s nuclear ambitions is the energy demand generated by artificial intelligence. Data centers require vast amounts of continuous, reliable power, and nuclear is the only source capable of delivering that power density on a stable basis. Beijing grasped this earlier than most and has shaped its expansion strategy accordingly. Meanwhile, Beijing has signed an agreement with the IAEA to share its expertise on high-temperature gas-cooled reactors — an unusual move for a historically guarded sector, and one that signals China’s growing ambition to project its nuclear technology onto the international stage.
The United States is not standing still: the Trump administration has openly declared its intention to assert American leadership in the global nuclear market, with investments in next-generation reactors and fusion. But the gap in construction pace, industrial capacity, and public-sector support remains substantial. If China maintains its current trajectory, the overtaking is not merely likely — it is already written into the growth curves. At that point, the question will no longer be who produces the most, but who succeeds in exporting their nuclear technology to the rest of the world.
