Nuclear power could more than triple by 2060. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said so on Friday, October 23, while presenting the agency’s annual report to the United Nations General Assembly.
Grossi himself provided the baseline figures. In 2025, more than 400 operating reactors in over 30 countries produced 10% of the world’s electricity and a quarter of its low-carbon electricity. More than 60 new reactors are now under construction and, he explained, projections for future capacity have risen markedly. The Director General described nuclear as on a par with solar and “safer than any other option”.
The forecast rests on the IAEA’s annual report on energy projections to 2060, presented in September at the General Conference in Vienna. At the end of 2025, 413 reactors were in operation, with a total of 377.1 gigawatts electric. In the high case, capacity reaches 1,045 GW(e) in 2050, up from 992 in the previous estimate, and 1,284 GW(e) in 2060, about 3.4 times the current level. The low case stops at 696 GW(e), almost double. It is the sixth consecutive year the agency has revised its estimates upward, and for the first time the horizon moves from 2050 to 2060.
According to Grossi, growth depends on three drivers: the electrification of energy consumption, data centers for artificial intelligence, and tech companies’ demand for reliable, carbon-free power. A growing number of countries are also looking to nuclear for energy security. SMRs, or small modular reactors, would account for 28% of new capacity by 2060 in the high case, around 284 GW(e). The region with the largest additions is Central and Eastern Asia, where capacity would rise from 114 to 407 GW(e).
For Italy, the reading is a concrete one. With a return to nuclear under discussion, rising electricity demand and an industrial supply chain ready to work on next-generation reactors, the IAEA’s estimates provide an international frame of reference. Grossi warned that realizing this potential requires investment in new capacity and lifetime extensions for existing reactors.
The next step is already set: in early November, governments will gather in Abu Dhabi to discuss the role of the atom. If investment follows the forecasts, the current decade will be the one in which SMRs move from blueprints to construction sites.
