The U.S. Congress has turned the spotlight on the uranium supply chain, and Uzbekistan is at the heart of the debate. During a hearing on critical resource security, the committee chair stressed that China already controls a significant share of U.S. uranium imports, posing risks to both the American economy and national security. Against this backdrop, Tashkent is accelerating its mining expansion plans along a trajectory that Washington is watching closely.
The numbers are clear. Navoiyuran, Uzbekistan’s state-owned producer, aims to raise annual uranium output from roughly 3,500 tonnes in 2021 to 7,100 tonnes by 2030, in line with a presidential decree signed by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in July 2022. According to U.S. Commerce Department data, Uzbekistan already extracted 3,800 tonnes in 2024, and the Tashkent government has set an even more ambitious goal: reaching 10,000 tonnes per year by the end of the decade. The country ranks fifth among global producers and holds proven reserves exceeding 100,000 tonnes.
The issue goes beyond sheer volume. Russia and China together control more than 50% of the world’s uranium enrichment capacity — a concentration that CSIS describes as “an unsustainable risk” to U.S. energy and national security. Washington is working to build a web of alternative partnerships, and Central Asia — with its vast uranium-bearing subsoil — is one of the regions offering real diversification potential. Uzbekistan already supplies a share of U.S. imports, and its status as a near-exclusive exporter makes it a natural counterpart for anyone seeking to reduce dependence on Moscow and Beijing.
Uzbekistan’s alliance landscape, however, is more complex. Navoiyuran signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) in November 2023 for the joint development of oil shale deposits in the Jantuar and Madanli regions. At the same time, France’s Orano has been operating in the country since 2019 through the Nurlikum Mining joint venture, which was joined in March 2025 by Japan’s Itochu Corporation with a 10% stake. The South Djengeldi project alone envisions $214 million in investment over three years, with an expected average output of 500 tonnes per year.
Global uranium demand will only intensify competition for Central Asian reserves. Projections point to a 28% increase in demand by 2030 and a near-doubling by 2040, driven by nuclear expansion across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. China alone has planned 150 new reactors between 2020 and 2035 and is on track to surpass U.S. nuclear generating capacity before 2030. In this context, every tonne of Uzbek uranium that reaches the international market becomes a piece of a geopolitical puzzle far larger than any single commercial transaction. Washington’s push to forge strategic partnerships with producer nations like Uzbekistan signals that the uranium game is being played just as much in the halls of Congress as in the sands of the Kyzylkum Desert.
